Genedec is aimed at providing insights into the workability, the efficiency
and the impacts of various scenarios of decoupling, so as to provide the Commission
with recommendations and alternative options to improve such a system. This
study will be useful for the future negotiations with current and new Member
States, as well as in the perspective of the going-on WTO negotiations.
- Scenarios will be based on MTR proposal and existing decoupling schemes. First analysed
through expert interviews, ex post statistical analysis and literature review.
Specifically, the project addresses quantitative assessments of the impacts
of decoupled support schemes on production, land use and land prices and their
implications for farm incomes and the future structural development of farms.
Special attention is also paid to efficiency, welfare effects and administrative
and implementation issues, including environmental and social concerns.
- The modelling used has recourse to linear programming and positive mathematical
programming, through the use of a set of micro-oriented farm-level models,
implemented with European databases such as FADN.
Existing models are further
developed to tackle quotas, premium entitlements and land markets and are
connected to each other thanks to shadow prices. This requires the harmonisation
of models and software, which enables results aggregation at a sector level
and as different scales (region, state, EU).
- Interdependencies with world markets can be dealt with by coupling farm level and partial equilibrium models
in a recursive manner.
- As for environmental aspects and structural changes,
they will be addressed both quantitatively and qualitatively.
- Finally, the
quantitative ex ante assessment will be validated by experts and sociological